What is the minimum number of players required for a game like Concord to thrive?

 Sony's recent decision to potentially halt its new live service hero shooter, Concord, didn't come as a shock to many. Just days after its launch, reports indicated it had sold around 25,000 copies—10,000 on Steam and 15,000 on PlayStation—with player counts remaining low. According to SteamDB, the game peaked at only 697 concurrent users on August 24, the day after launch, and saw a significant decline thereafter.

By the time we recorded this week's GI Microcast on Monday morning, a mere 39 players were logged in.

Shutting down an online game is never taken lightly, especially when live services are central to a company’s strategy. Sony's decision to pull Concord likely hinged on multiple factors, with sales and active player count being the most critical. Operating multiplayer games can be costly, and sustaining one with a small player base is not financially viable, especially in today’s challenging economic climate.

So, how many players does an online game need to justify ongoing development and support? The answer varies by title, depending on the developer's size, circumstances, and financial and creative goals. To shed light on these game-cancellation decisions, we consulted industry analysts and veterans ahead of our live Q&A podcast at Devcom 2024.

"Is this a trick question?" laughs Piers Harding-Rolls, head of games research at Ampere Analysis. "There are so many variables at play that it's not really possible to pinpoint a specific number. For one game, it might be 200,000 monthly active users; for another, it could be two million."

He outlines various factors that influence a game's survival, including R&D investment (pre- and post-launch), staffing costs, marketing expenses, infrastructure, service delivery costs, business model, monetization strategy, platform support, financing, licensing, and publishing costs.

"Each game and company is unique, so the break-even point will differ," Harding-Rolls notes.

"Beyond return on investment, it's essential to have a large enough player population to ensure the game remains enjoyable. Players don’t want to wait too long to find teammates or opponents. If a game feels underpopulated, players may leave for something else."

Concord is not an isolated case; many online games have shut down in recent years, often after a short operational period. For instance, Tencent's Synched, a free-to-play shooter, was discontinued just a year after its release due to dwindling daily active users, which fell to about 10,000, with concurrent users dropping to between 500 and 1,000.

In February 2023 alone, eight games—including Apex Legends Mobile, Rumbleverse, and Knockout City—were announced for shutdown, often within just a couple of years post-launch. Velan Studios' Knockout City, for example, transitioned to a free-to-play model after splitting from Electronic Arts but still faced low player counts, averaging between 1,500 and 5,000 concurrent users before shutting down.

Bala explains that determining whether to end an online game is a nuanced issue. For PvP multiplayer games, especially those that are skill-based, a peak concurrent user count of 10,000 is ideal for each region. If player counts drop significantly, it can lead to longer matchmaking times and diminish the overall experience, particularly in low-population regions.

"While some games can survive with lower player counts, skill-based PvP titles require higher numbers for effective matchmaking. In contrast, PvE games can function adequately with fewer players because they can incorporate bots as allies or enemies," Bala says. He adds that the game's business model can significantly impact its longevity, with free-to-play titles needing at least 5% of their user base to be paying customers to remain viable.

Concord, however, opted for a mid-range price model similar to Helldivers 2, lacking microtransactions or a battle pass, which meant its revenue was solely from sales. Given that it sold only 25,000 copies in its first week, it likely fell short of Sony's sales expectations.

Bala further notes that premium titles generally involve larger development teams, increasing costs significantly. He estimates that a 50-person team could incur monthly labor costs of around $500,000, necessitating substantial sales to break even.

"To foster innovation in PvP games, we need to explore more ways for players to pay upfront," Bala argues. "Otherwise, this segment risks resembling mobile titles, where monetization overshadows engaging experiences."

The future of Concord remains uncertain. Game director Ryan Ellis stated that the Firewalk team is "exploring other options" for the title.

What’s clear is that launching a new live service game is tougher than ever. With established titles like Fortnite, Roblox, and GTA Online commanding player attention and investment, attracting new players—even temporarily—poses a significant challenge. If even a major player like PlayStation struggles to draw in enough players, it's likely that Concord won't be the last fleeting online game we see in the coming years.