Cardinals Head to Atlanta for 3-Game Series - A Preview

 Alright, folks, we've got a situation on our hands. The Cardinals have only won one road game this season—and it's April 21st. Now, do I think this is just a weird, random quirk that baseball can throw at you, rather than the Cardinals actually being a terrible road team? Yeah, probably. But would I bet any money they’ll win a road game? Definitely not. (Not that I bet, but let’s pretend.)

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Bad news: We’re still on the road. Other bad news: you might’ve heard the Braves were off to a rough start. That’s true. But now they’re coming off a sweep. The timing of when you face an opponent is as important as how good they are. Whatever funk the Braves were in, they may be out of it. If the Braves don’t win this series, though, you might want to reconsider your faith in them. Losing at home to a 1-9 road team is not a good sign for playoff hopes.

So here it is: this is practically an elimination series for the Braves. We could end their playoff dreams right here.

What they lost
The Braves lost Jorge Soler—sure, his bat is missed, but probably not the paycheck. They traded him for Griffin Canning, who they later nontendered, so we just saw Canning with a new team. It was a money-saving move, and given the Braves' start, I’m sure their fans are not thrilled about it.

They also lost AJ Minter, who’s now thriving in New York. Not exactly what Braves fans were hoping for. Max Fried left for free agency, signing with the Yankees for a hefty sum. Fans seem more understanding about that one. Charlie Morton was also let go, but it looks like they may have made the right call there.

Whit Merrifield and Adam Duvall were also lost. Duvall had a rough season last year, and neither player is signed with any team. They also lost John Brebbia, who was only with them briefly. Luke Jackson’s club option was declined, and he signed with the Rangers.

What they added
Nick Allen, now their everyday shortstop, was acquired in an offseason trade. He’s had a solid start with a .387 BABIP, but we’ll see how long that lasts. They also signed Bryan de la Cruz, but he was sent down to the minors after a dismal start.

They gave Jurickson Profar a three-year deal, but that’s on hold due to an 80-game suspension. Alex Verdugo, the current leadoff hitter, signed a minor league deal but has earned the spot—though his .291 OBP last year makes it hard to get excited. Honestly, it’s moves like this that make me think this Braves team might not be as good as we thought.

A few bullpen additions: Enyel De Los Santos was traded for and has been solid. Rafael Montero, acquired early in the season, has posted a 2.25 ERA, but with troubling peripherals—5 strikeouts to 5 walks. Scott Blewett, a journeyman reliever, has been surprisingly effective despite changing teams three times already this year.

What’s the same
Ronald Acuña Jr. is still out with an injury. The core remains strong: Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II. Marcell Ozuna is off to a hot start, and Jared Kelenic... still isn’t very good. Orlando Arcia is on the bench, with a 43 wRC+ this season.

Raisel Iglesias is still closing, though he’s been inconsistent. He’s allowed three homers, all of which are his earned runs. The Braves’ bullpen also still features Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee. With a Bummer and a Blewett, it’s only a matter of time before a Homer Bailey joke is made.

Monday - 6:15 PM
Erick Fedde (3.43 ERA/4.88 FIP/5.51 xFIP) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (2.55 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.03 xFIP)

Max Fried is gone, and Schwellenbach steps in—not exactly a direct replacement, but he’s been solid this season. Schwellenbach’s strikeouts are down, but his groundball rate is up (54.5%). He might be better than last year, just in a different way.

Erick Fedde’s been a bit of a mystery—his ERA is deceptively good, thanks to one bad start. But he’s been skating on thin ice, and eventually, that luck might catch up with him.

Tuesday - 6:15 PM
Andre Pallante (3.22 ERA/4.37 FIP/3.40 xFIP) vs. Spencer Strider (3.60 ERA/4.82 FIP/4.55 xFIP)

Strider’s only made one start this year, and it wasn’t his best. He didn’t strike out as much as usual and allowed a lot of air balls. Strider’s still adjusting after Tommy John surgery, so this could be a hiccup, or it could be a sign of things to come.

This is a good matchup for Pallante. The Braves’ lineup features several left-handed hitters, and Pallante’s split has been solid against lefties. But outside of Nick Allen, most of the Braves’ right-handed hitters are tough.

Wednesday - 11:15 AM
Miles Mikolas (7.64 ERA/2.97 FIP/5.11 xFIP) vs. Bryce Elder (7.20 ERA/7.02 FIP/4.34 xFIP)

Mikolas is the closer for this series? Well, if the Braves don’t win this, it’s a very bad sign for their season. This could be their “Oh crap, we’re actually bad” moment. And if the Cardinals somehow sweep them, it’ll be the low point of their year.

Elder’s a groundball pitcher who’s been allowing a ton of homers. He’s given up five in just three starts, and none of them have been good. The Braves need to turn it around now, or their season might be in real trouble.

Your move, Cardinals!