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For the past 25 years, Americans have often stayed up until the early hours awaiting final calls from news organizations on the last crucial state that would decide the presidency or control of Congress.
Election night 2000 exemplified this, marking the origin of the familiar red and blue state designations. As the nation watched, NBC’s Tim Russert discussed the nail-biting Florida results well into the night.
In 2024, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck-and-neck in the polls, it’s unlikely that we’ll know the presidential winner on election night. The race is expected to hinge on a few key swing states. Absentee ballot procedures in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin mean that these states may need extra days to finalize counts, though Harris could secure the presidency if she wins other swing states decisively.
Why and How News Organizations Make the Call
News organizations don’t determine the winner; they project the winner based on mathematical certainty from vote counts reported by elections offices. Official certification happens days or weeks after the election.
David Scott, head of news strategy at the Associated Press (AP), emphasizes that their standard is “absolute certainty,” only calling the race when they’re confident no other candidate can catch up. The AP, along with CNN, NBC, and others, rely on statistical models at “decision desks” to project results. Independent organizations like Decision Desk HQ now also assist with these analyses.
Election night decisions are made by statisticians, not news anchors. Mike Whener, an elections expert at the University of Wisconsin, points out that these projections don’t come from high-profile hosts but from data experts working behind the scenes.
Timing of Results in 2020 and Expectations for 2024
In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory was announced on November 7, four days after the election, with Pennsylvania and Nevada tipping him over the threshold. Arizona took nine days to call, Georgia needed a recount, and states like Michigan and Wisconsin were called within a day.
For 2024, the timeline may be faster due to fewer mail ballots and improved pre-canvassing in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. However, if margins are tight or recounts are necessary, results could be delayed. In some swing states, results may take until Wednesday morning, particularly in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where mail ballots cannot be processed until election day.
Potential Delays and Legal Disputes
If states report narrow margins under 0.5% or require recounts, results may be prolonged. Absentee ballots in Nevada can be accepted up to four days after election day if postmarked by November 5, which could add delay. Additionally, lawsuits about ballot handling may extend the timeline in some swing states.
If the race is close, especially in states with tight procedures like Pennsylvania, results could depend on provisional and military ballots, with campaigns mobilizing to validate those votes if needed.
Early Results and Key Terms: ‘Red Mirage’ and ‘Blue Shift’
On election night, news organizations often call states on the East Coast first, particularly those with predictable outcomes. A “red mirage” or “blue shift” may occur, where early in-person results show a Republican lead, only for late-counted mail ballots to favor Democrats. For example, in 2020, Trump initially led, but Biden gained ground as mail ballots were processed. In Arizona, early mail ballots are counted first, sometimes giving Democrats an early lead.
The Role of the Electoral College
The U.S. presidential election isn’t decided by the national popular vote but by the Electoral College, where each state’s electoral votes go to the candidate winning that state. It takes 270 electoral votes to win, regardless of the popular vote margin.
Congress Control Results
With 435 congressional races nationwide, not all will be resolved on election night. According to Decision Desk HQ president Drew McCoy, close races could require recounts or extended counts, delaying the final tally on which party controls Congress.