"Russia's Burevestnik: Not the Game-Changing Weapon It Claims to Be"

 On Monday, Reuters reported my finding that Russia is constructing what seems to be the first deployment site for its experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik, known in the U.S. as the SSC-X-9 Skyfall. The facility is nearing completion, indicating that the new missile could soon be operational with the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces.

This site, located at a nuclear warhead storage facility reportedly named Vologda-20, is approximately 400 miles from Russia's borders with Finland and Estonia. It features nine fixed launch positions, supported by missile-handling facilities and nuclear warhead storage bunkers. With both missiles and warheads housed at the same location, it's likely the Burevestnik will be an on-alert missile, ready to launch at a moment's notice.

The Burevestnik has generated significant attention; U.S. officials have condemned Russia's development of “radiation-spewing, nuclear-powered cruise missiles,” labeling the system a “flying Chernobyl.” Unlike conventional cruise missiles powered by jet engines, the Burevestnik utilizes an unshielded nuclear reactor for propulsion, theoretically enabling it to travel nearly unlimited distances.

If deployed, the Burevestnik would be the first missile of its kind in active service. The U.S. considered a nuclear-powered missile in the 1950s and 1960s under Project Pluto but abandoned it due to safety concerns for its own population. These worries were underscored in 2019 when a Burevestnik exploded during a test, resulting in the deaths of several Russian missile scientists.

The Burevestnik's advanced propulsion system and virtually limitless range could allow Russia to employ the missile in novel ways. In 2020, General James Hockenhull, the UK’s Chief of Defense Intelligence, stated that Moscow was testing a nuclear-powered cruise missile system with "global reach" that could strike from unexpected directions and provide "near indefinite loiter time." This means the missile could circle a target for extended periods before launching an attack, potentially even flying around the globe.

Concerns about this loitering capability have arisen, as it could enable Russia to deploy Burevestnik missiles during a crisis to hover near U.S. and NATO targets, awaiting instructions. This strategy would facilitate rapid strikes upon receiving orders, significantly reducing NATO's reaction time to Russian aggression. Some analysts speculate that Russia might even fly Burevestniks over European territories as a show of force, intimidating NATO allies into submission.

However, these assessments of the Burevestnik’s capabilities may be technically flawed. Russia is unlikely to employ the missile in such a manner due to two primary limitations: range and visibility.

Despite claims from the Russian Ministry of Defense that the missile's range is effectively unlimited, there are considerable drawbacks to extended flights or prolonged loitering. Missiles typically determine their location through satellite communication, which can be easily jammed or spoofed. To function without satellite support, the missile also employs inertial navigation, relying on mechanical accelerometers and gyroscopes to track its position through dead reckoning.

Over time, even minor errors in the guidance system can accumulate, similar to how a mechanical watch eventually becomes inaccurate. Thus, maintaining a missile in a loitering pattern for extended durations poses a significant risk of straying off course and missing its target.

Russia could attempt to guide its missiles remotely, but the limited range of its communication systems—along with the Earth's curvature—would severely restrict the areas where reliable guidance is feasible. If missiles were deployed far from home, maintaining effective communication would be challenging. Even if remote guidance were implemented, the missiles would still be vulnerable to electronic warfare.

Nonetheless, the Burevestnik's extended range isn't entirely without merit. Cruise missiles function similarly to disposable aircraft; their range, like that of airplanes, hinges on fuel efficiency. The altitude at which the missile flies involves a crucial trade-off between range and detection. Higher altitudes offer better fuel efficiency due to thinner air and reduced drag, but they also increase radar visibility. Conversely, flying at lower altitudes helps evade detection, but thicker air demands more fuel, significantly reducing the missile's range.