LSU vs. USC Betting: Will the Tigers and Trojans Reach High Point Totals?

1 Sep, 2024

Week 1 of the 2024 College Football Season: USC vs. LSU

The 2024 college football season kicks off with an exciting Sunday night matchup between the No. 23 USC Trojans and the No. 13 LSU Tigers, set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Both teams are tasked with replacing their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks: Garrett Nussmeier will lead LSU, stepping in for 2023 winner Jayden Daniels, while Miller Moss takes over for 2022 winner Caleb Williams at USC. This game marks USC's inaugural season in the Big Ten Conference, while LSU begins its campaign in a newly expanded 16-team SEC.

Historically, these two prestigious programs have met only twice, with their last matchup occurring in 1984. This contest will take place at a neutral site—Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Current Odds (as of publication, via ESPN BET):

Spread: LSU (-4)
Moneyline: LSU (-185), USC (+155)
Over/Under: 64.5

First-Half Lines:

LSU -2.5 (-120), USC +2.5 (Even)
LSU Total Points: Over 34.5 (-115), Under 34.5 (-115)
USC Total Points: Over 29.5 (-120), Under 29.5 (-110)

Miller Moss, coming off a remarkable performance where he threw six touchdowns in his last start, will look to lead the Trojans against a formidable opponent.

Game Pick: USC +4 vs. LSU

With both teams debuting new quarterbacks, the question becomes which team can inspire more confidence among bettors. I'm leaning towards the Trojans and Miller Moss. With significant college experience, including a standout performance in the Holiday Bowl with six touchdown passes and 372 yards, Moss fits seamlessly into USC’s dynamic offense. I also have faith in head coach Lincoln Riley, known for his innovative strategies that enhance quarterback effectiveness through a spread offense that prioritizes aggressive downfield passing and quick decision-making.

While LSU and head coach Brian Kelly have their strengths, the loss of Jayden Daniels is significant. Daniels was not only a dual-threat quarterback but a transformative player for LSU, setting records for rushing yards by a quarterback in a season (1,134) and delivering standout performances, such as his historic game against Florida where he amassed 606 total yards. Replacing a player of his caliber is no small feat.

Although Garrett Nussmeier has shown potential, the transition could create challenges for LSU's offense as they adapt to a new leader. The neutral-site setting in Las Vegas further diminishes the home-field advantage usually enjoyed by SEC teams like LSU. Given these factors, I'm taking the four points with USC.

Betting Trends (via ESPN Stats & Information):

Both teams ranked among the top three in hitting the over last season, with USC and LSU leading among power-conference teams.
USC: 1-10 against the spread in neutral-site games since 2014, the worst in FBS during that period.
LSU: 1-5 against the spread in neutral-site games since 2020, ranking as the third worst in FBS over that span.

More from ESPN:

Best bets: Insights on underdogs and totals for Week 1
How to enjoy the 2024 college football season
College football betting odds and lines for Week 1