Will Ohtani achieve a historic milestone by becoming the first player in MLB history to have a 50-50 season?

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Shohei Ohtani's remarkable career has consistently pushed boundaries. Will he do it again?

While Ohtani is not the first to enter the prestigious 40-40 club—achieving 40 or more home runs and stolen bases in the same season—he stands poised to become the first player to hit a new power-speed milestone.

Ohtani has a legitimate chance to be the first 50-50 player in AL/NL history, putting him on the brink of what could be considered the best power-speed season ever.

The Dodgers superstar notched his 40th homer and steal on Friday against the Rays, hitting a walk-off grand slam and joining the ranks of the 40-40 club as its sixth member. However, with over a month left in the regular season, achieving the 50-50 milestone is still uncertain for Ohtani.

Considering his current performance, historical data, and the Dodgers’ upcoming schedule, let's evaluate Ohtani’s chances of establishing a whole new milestone in 2024.

Ohtani’s Current Performance

After Friday's game, Ohtani is on track for a 50-50 season. With 40 home runs and 40 steals in 129 games, he could reach or surpass 50 in each category over a full 162-game season. Sustaining this power-speed output in the coming month is crucial.

Historical Context: Who’s Come Close to 50-50?

No player in the AL/NL has achieved 50-50, and few have come close. The closest was Ronald Acuña Jr., who recorded 41 home runs and 73 steals in 2023 while winning the NL MVP Award—still nine homers short. Alex Rodriguez holds the highest combined totals with 42 homers and 46 steals in 1998.

Ohtani’s chances are bolstered by his incredible pace; he has become the fastest player to reach 40-40, accomplishing this in just 126 games.

Comparison of Players to Reach 40-40:

• Shohei Ohtani, 2024: 126 games (40 HR, 40 SB)
• Alfonso Soriano, 2006: 147 games (46 HR, 41 SB)
• Jose Canseco, 1988: 151 games (42 HR, 40 SB)
• Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023: 152 games (41 HR, 73 SB)
• Alex Rodriguez, 1998: 153 games (42 HR, 46 SB)
• Barry Bonds, 1996: 158 games (42 HR, 40 SB)

With 40-40 already in his rearview mirror, Ohtani may very well aim even higher. Based on his production this season, a classic Ohtani hot streak could pave the way for history.

Assessing Ohtani’s Potential

Just how explosive can Ohtani be at the plate and on the bases? His performance at Dodger Stadium on Friday highlighted his capabilities, stealing second after an infield single and sealing the game with his grand slam. This marked Ohtani’s 27th career game with both a home run and a steal—one of which occurred on a day he pitched, showcasing his versatility.

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Ohtani’s remarkable talent, characterized by both bat speed and exceptional sprinting ability, positions him well for a stellar September, making 50-50 an attainable goal. His production has been consistent throughout the 2024 season, as evidenced by his performance over recent stretches.

From August 9 to 18, he hit five homers and stole five bases. He mirrored this achievement in another ten-game stretch from May 3 to May 14. Additionally, he had four home runs and four steals in overlapping five-game spans between April 30 and May 7.

Remaining Games and What They Mean

As of Friday's walk-off win, the Dodgers have 33 games remaining, and Ohtani needs ten home runs and ten steals to reach the 50-50 milestone. He has achieved both totals in 25 out of 94 previous spans of 33 games this season, translating to a 26.6% success rate.

Ohtani’s Best Performances Over 33 Games:

• 10 HR, 18 SB (July 5-Aug. 14)
• 11 HR, 17 SB (July 13-Aug. 21)
• 14 HR, 10 SB (June 16-July 26)
• 13 HR, 11 SB (June 17-July 27)
• 12 HR, 12 SB (3 overlapping spans)

His 40th home run and steal on Friday resulted in 11 homers and 17 steals in the past 33 games, a pace that could yield 51 home runs and 57 steals by season’s end. If he replicates his earlier stretch of 14 homers and 10 steals, he could finish with 54 home runs and 50 steals.

It’s important to note that these figures only represent Ohtani’s most productive periods and don’t guarantee he’ll maintain this level of performance. Furthermore, the disparity in the frequency of homers versus steals in MLB this season complicates reaching the latter part of the milestone, especially considering Ohtani's historical stats (171 career home runs and 86 steals).

Schedule Impact on Ohtani’s Chase

Ohtani’s chase for 50-50 could be influenced by the opponents the Dodgers face for the remainder of the season. Historically, weaker teams allow more home runs, and the bottom three teams in homers allowed are all below .500. The Dodgers are set to face the Rockies, who have allowed the second-most home runs, six times before the season ends, including a three-game series at Coors Field.

However, the Dodgers also have a four-game series against the Braves, the team that has given up the fewest home runs in the league, which could pose a challenge.

The Dodgers’ opponents also vary in their ability to catch runners stealing. The Rockies are particularly adept, with only 74% of opposing runners succeeding in stealing bases—one of the lowest rates in MLB. The Dodgers will also face teams like the Cubs and Rays, who are easier to run against.

Although the Dodgers could consider resting Ohtani for the postseason due to their comfortable lead in the NL West, the close race with the D-backs and Padres decreases the likelihood of him sitting out critical series.

Final Thoughts

So, where does that leave us?

Achieving 50-50 is an extraordinary feat, and while it remains a significant challenge, Ohtani faces no major obstacles at this moment. He is not hindered by any injuries, and his team’s schedule presents manageable challenges. Despite a dip in performance this month, hitting just .209 in August, he has still managed to produce eight homers and 12 steals with only 18 hits. A rise in his batting average and on-base percentage would further increase his chances of reaching the 50-50 milestone.

That said, it’s also possible Ohtani may not meet the target, settling instead for the fastest 40-40 season in history, which is still a remarkable achievement.

With the potential for 50-50 looming and a truly exceptional player chasing history, it's certainly exciting to contemplate.

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