US Polling Expert Predicts RFK Jr.'s Withdrawal Will Benefit Harris

 Historian Allan Lichtman suggested that if independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, it could benefit Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign. During a YouTube livestream, Lichtman responded affirmatively when asked if Kennedy's exit and potential endorsement of former President Donald Trump would bolster Harris's chances. He stated, "Absolutely correct," and added that Kennedy's endorsement of Trump would not significantly impact the race.

Lichtman emphasized that he hasn't made a definitive call regarding the importance of third-party candidates but noted that it appears unlikely for Kennedy to recover in the race. He also expressed that he is still reserving judgment on the situation.

Lichtman is known for his election prediction model, "The Keys to the White House," which has accurately forecasted the outcomes of the last ten elections, earning him the moniker "Nostradamus" of U.S. elections. His model comprises 13 keys that determine the likelihood of an incumbent party winning reelection. If six or more keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose; if five or fewer are false, it is expected to win.

While Lichtman believes Kennedy's exit would strengthen the Democrats' chances, some analysts argue that it could instead benefit Trump's campaign. Polls indicate that Kennedy is currently drawing more support from Trump than from Harris, suggesting that Trump's team may have an incentive to encourage Kennedy to leave the race.